Intégration verticale et niveau du risque au sein des compagnies pétrolières internationales. Impact sur la volatilité des bénéfices de 15 compagnies entre 1980 et 1989

Vertical Integration and Risk Level in International Oil Companies

Institut Français du Pétrole

Résumé

On regroupe couramment les diverses activités pétrolières en deux ensembles que l'on dit complémentaires : l'amont et l'aval. On emploie alors le terme d'intégration verticale pour exprimer le fait qu'une même compagnie soit présente tant à l'amont qu'à l'aval. L'intégration verticale est étudiée ici sur la période 1980-1989 à travers quinze compagnies pétrolières : six Majors et neuf Indépendants. Les volumes d'activité des deux secteurs considérés présentent des évolutions contrastées selon les compagnies et les années. En effet, la recherche d'une intégration verticale plus complète - c'est-à-dire d'une plus grande présence en amont - peut découler de deux logiques différentes. D'un point de vue industriel, si l'amont constitue souvent le fondement de l'activité des compagnies, il existe de plus des facteurs de sécurité d'approvisionnement, d'économie de transaction et d'économie d'échelle. D'un point de vue économique, dans la mesure où les ventes du secteur amont sont les fournitures du secteur aval, c'est l'antisymétrie des résultats des deux secteurs qui est un atout. Il s'agit donc d'analyser les liens entre l'intégration verticale et la stabilité des bénéfices. Sur la période considérée, et pour l'ensemble des compagnies, le coefficient de corrélation entre les bénéfices amont et les bénéfices aval est négatif. L'étude, compagnie par compagnie, montre que plus les compagnies sont intégrées verticalement et plus leurs résultats sont anticorrélés. De même, l'étude des répercussions sur la volatilité des bénéfices est concluante. On constate que la volatilité du bénéfice global (amont et aval) est pour chaque compagnie inférieure à celles des bénéfices sectoriels. Des estimations économétriques confirment ces observations. Les Majors se caractérisent par des volatilités faibles, tandis que d'autres compagnies, à forts risques sectoriels, limitent la volatilité de leur bénéfice global du fait d'une intégration verticale importante. Ainsi, trois facteurs agissent principalement sur la stabilité des profits des compagnies pétrolières : la taille de la firme, la diversification géographique des activités, l'intégration verticale. Cette dernière caractéristique peut compenser la faiblesse relative dans les autres domaines. Enfin, on peut noter que l'intégration verticale semble particulièrement bien adaptée en période de forte variation des prix du brut.

Abstract

International companies are usually active in several sectors of activity throughout petroleum operations. Different petroleum activities (exploration, production, transport, refining, distribution, etc. ) are grouped in two sectors that are said to be complementary, i. e. upstream and downstream. The term vertical integration is used to express the fact that the same company is present both upstream and downstream. Vertical integration is examined here for the 1980-1989 period via a sampling (representative of the diversity of sizes and situations) of fifteen oil companies : Exxon, Royal Dutch-Shell, British Petroleum, Mobil, Amoco, Atlantic Richfield, Phillips, Conoco, Occidental Petroleum, Unocal, Sun, Arrierada Hess, Keer McGee, Murphy, and Tosco. Vertical integration is measured by a simple physical ratio, i. e. the ratio of the annual volume of liquid hydrocarbons produced to the annual volume of hydrocarbons refined. The volumes of activity of the two sectors considered have contrasting evolutions depending on the companies and years. Whereas in most companies the volumes of crude oil produced have been increasing, there is in particular a decrease in the volumes processed downstream. The sampling of companies retained reveals a highly contrasting situation in the levels of integration. Nonetheless, for the companies examined as a whole, vertical integration increased slightly during the period considered. Indeed, the search for more complete vertical integration can be detected, i. e. greater presence upstream. This may stem from two different forms of logic. From the industrial standpoint, whereas the upstream sector is often the basis for the activities of companies, various advantages are associated with the progression of integration, i. e. reliability of supplies, economies in transactions and economies of scale, controlling the added value, etc. From the economic standpoint any diversification of activities tends to lower the overall risk taken by the firm. Likewise, to the extent that sales by the upstream sector are supplies to the downstream sector, the antisymmetric nature of the results of the sectors is an asset. The problem is then to analyze the links between vertical integration and a fundamental risk indicator, i. e. the stability of profits. The net annual profits are examined by sector of activity, excluding exceptional elements. It is quite obvious that these sectorial profits depend mainly on the level of crude-oil prices. For the period considered and for the companies as a whole, the correlation coefficient between upstream profits and downstream profits is negative. A company-by-company survey shows that the more companies are vertically integrated the more their results are anticorrelated. An econometric assessment confirms these observations. Graphic representations illustrate the reverse evolutions of sectorial profits for the period. Likewise, the analysis of the repercussions on the volatility of profits is conclusive. On the basis of the data gathered, it can be seen that the volatility of profits by the downstream sector is great for the period. Whereas that of the upstream sector is less, it can be seen in particular that the volatility of the overall profit (upstream and downstream) is less for each company than the volatilities of the sectorial profits. Furthermore, a measurement of the profit variation coefficient - with regard to the rate of vertical integration - shows that, for strongly integrated companies, the volatility of profits is reduced. Checked econometrically, this relation can be seen clearly on the reduced graph. Companies with high sectoral risks succeed in limiting the volatility of their overall profit as the result of extensive vertical integration. Other companies, because of their specific natures, deviate from the straight line of least squares. It is either the very small-size companies having very volatile profits or the Majors that are characterized by low volatilities, even for sectorial profits. Hence it can be assumed that three factors mainly act in favor of the stability of the profits of oil companies, i. e. the size of the firm, the geographic diversification of its activities, and its vertical integration. This last characteristic may make it possible to compensate for its relative weakness in the other fields. This economic type outlook should be linked to a more general preoccupation to reduce fluctuations and hence risks. Lastly, it can be seen that vertical integration seems to be especially well suited in a period of strong variations in crude-oil prices.