Table 2
Scenario assumptions.
| Indicator | Period | Unit | Probable scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demography and economy | |||
| Global population | 2015 | Billion people | 7,40 |
| 2020 | 7,80 | ||
| 2030 | 8,50 | ||
| 2040 | 9,20 | ||
| Global annual GDP growth | 2015 | % | 2,80 |
| 2020 | 3,30 | ||
| 2030 | 3,00 | ||
| 2040 | 2,50 | ||
| Average global per capita GDP | 2015 | US$1,000 2014 | 15,30 |
| 2040 | 24,70 | ||
| Geopolitics, state energy policies, climate | |||
| Geopolitical risks | – | – | Local conflicts |
| State energy policies | – | – | Incomplete implementation of plans |
| CO2 prices | 2015, Europe | US$2014/toe | 8 |
| 2015, Asia | 0 | ||
| 2040, Europe | 35 | ||
| 2040, Asia | 25 | ||
| Global ETS state | – | – | Undeveloped, but regional carbon markets emerge |
| Technology | |||
| Technological development | – | – | No technological breakthroughs are expected. It is assumed that only those technologies that are currently being tested will be introduced. Existing technologies will undergo a gradual increase in their cost effectiveness, along with a continuation of the existing trend of declining GDP energy intensity in each country. |
| Transfer of technologies | – | – | Limited |
Source: Makarov et al. (2016) .