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Table 2

Scenario assumptions.

Indicator Period Unit Probable scenario
Demography and economy
Global population 2015 Billion people 7,40
2020 7,80
2030 8,50
2040 9,20
Global annual GDP growth 2015 % 2,80
2020 3,30
2030 3,00
2040 2,50
Average global per capita GDP 2015 US$1,000 2014 15,30
2040 24,70
Geopolitics, state energy policies, climate
Geopolitical risks Local conflicts
State energy policies Incomplete implementation of plans
CO2 prices 2015, Europe US$2014/toe 8
2015, Asia 0
2040, Europe 35
2040, Asia 25
Global ETS state Undeveloped, but regional carbon markets emerge
Technological development No technological breakthroughs are expected. It is assumed that only those technologies that are currently being tested will be introduced. Existing technologies will undergo a gradual increase in their cost effectiveness, along with a continuation of the existing trend of declining GDP energy intensity in each country.
Transfer of technologies Limited

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