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Table 3.

Key scenario assumptions (Source: Author’s research)

Scenario LTO Heavy oil and bitumen Kerogen oil
Baseline Up until 2020, a slow reduction in costs occurs. The resource base is not considerably expanded by new discoveries or breakthrough technologies. Large-scale production does not go beyond North America. Some projects are developed in Russia, Argentina, China. A gradual escalation of costs takes place over the forecast period. The resource base is not expanded significantly. Large scale production is carried out in North America; individual projects are launched in Russia, Venezuela and several other countries. Kerogen resources do not pass into commercially recoverable category in the forecast period. Production is carried out in the framework of pilot projects.
Technological Up until 2020 a slow cost reduction occurs. Resource base is expanded due to new discoveries, including large-scale production in Russia, China and Argentina. Slow process of efficiency improvement takes place over the forecast period. In situ technology gradually becomes the predominant approach. Average production costs decrease. Russia, Venezuela, China and other countries initiate commercial production. Heavy oil and bitumen production technologies are adopted for kerogen production, allowing to establish full-scale production at 45–85 US$/barrel. Ecological concerns are overcome through technological advances. Projects are launched in Morocco, Israel, Australia, China and Mongolia.

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